KZBlog

Yesterday at a meeting of the party of Otan, the party that holds the majority in Parliament and the party of the President two major decisions were made:

1) Otan will change its name to NurOtan. While Nur means “sunlight” in Kazakh, and Otan means “fatherland”, no one can doubt that the name change refers to the President, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The President holds a great deal of official and unofficial power and perhaps the name change is just acknowledging the status quo. One does wonder though if the lesson of Turkmenbashi’s death holds no lessons for Kazakhstan, that man is mortal, that in 2012 (barring a new Constitution) a new President will be elected, and that therefore putting all your eggs in one leader is not wise.

2) The Civic Party and the Agrarian Party both merged within Otan, following Asar’s lead earlier this year. Yesterday’s announcement adds 262 000 new members to the already almost 500 000 strong party. According to the RFE/RL, the Civic Party was the second-largest party in Kazakhstan.

Bakhytzhan Zhumagulov, the acting deputy chairman of Otan, said a large political party is a necessity for a country with big plans, and he said the example of other countries proved this.

“World experience shows that when a country is faced with massive economic and social tasks only a very strong party can provide an effective strategy of development,” he said. “The examples of Japan, Switzerland, Singapore, and other countries are well known and have been often cited.”

And as Zhumagulov noted at the party congress, the addition of the two parties gives Otan a vast majority in parliament. “Our faction — which after today’s merger now holds 90 percent of the seats in parliament — has significantly improved its work in recent years, both in the quantity and the quality of its contributions to the legislative process,” he said.

Cynical Westerners might also site the example of the Soviet Union in which one party ruled and lines between the nation, the government and the party were blurry if they existed at all, leading to a culture of corruption, tyranny, and suppression of human rights to an ideology. It also isn’t clear that a 90% majority is practically any better than the 80% majority Otan held or that there was some kind of real opposition in the government to pushing through the President’s plans and strategies. On the ground it appears that whatever the President says, goes. Soon the President will give his State of the Union address and set the agenda for the next year and that program will be carried out by the Prime Minister as it always is. And like “industrial innovation,” “clusters,” “social business corporations,” scraps of his speeches will be pounced upon by government officials wishing to endear themselves to Nazarbayev.

This move is quite serious given that registering a new party recently became much more difficult in Kazakhstan, now requiring hundred of thousands of signatures in each oblast (province). This unification was not unpredictable* and consolidating power to push through a centralized program that may not be popular is the standard procedure for Kazakhstany politics. Proponents would argue that the strong presidency of Nazarbayev made possible the “economic shock” program that led to the propsperity of the country today.

We will also note that the opposition, which broke ranks right before the Presidential elections, to form not only Ak Zhol and Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, but also Real Ak Zhol and No, we’re really the real Ak Zhol, is dividing itself again potentially, to take the same tactic. In July, Tuyakbai announced that he would form the Social Democratic Party out of the For a Just Kazakhstan movement (starting a movement, then a party is one way of getting the onerous number of signatures for official registration). Other opposition parties were pessimisstic about joining at the time of the announcement:

Communist Party leader Serikbolsyn Abdildin confirmed this in comments to RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service. Abdildin said the idea to form a new political party was Tuyakbai’s and, when asked by RFE/RL if the Communist Party might join in this new party, Abdildin said: “No, it is not possible. [The Social-Democratic Party] will be a separate party. In fact, we (eds: the Communist Party members) are the only legitimate opposition party since others have never been registered before.”

Actually, opposition parties have been registered, but during a reregistration process mandated by the government in 2003, most of them disappeared. One opposition party trying to register is Alga, but its leader, Asylbek Kozhamet, told RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service that neither his party nor the opposition Naghyz Ak Zhol party would join Tuyakbai’s social democrats. One of Naghyz Ak Zhol’s leaders, Altynbek Sarsenbaev, was murdered in February and the party is still facing registration problems.

Of the new parties to be registered, including the Atamken Party and the business party as of yet unamed, they both appear to be pro-Presidential, leaving the opposition divided and out in the cold, it would appear.

In short, this new megaparty is also a sign that the powers-that-be are not happy with a 91% Presidential election and a majority of Parliament seats. Observers noted that the period after the elections would be a key test for the democratic intentions of the nation. Having such a overwhelming victory, would there be a period of relaxing, decentralization, liberality for the opposition? Or would the political capital be used and abused to consolidate power?. This move appears to be in the latter category.

* Do I get free drinks now, James?