KZBlog

Unfortunate Incidents and Warnings of Violence

After the Kyrgyz revolution, the government of Kazakhstan (among other nations) took a long hard look at their own situation and potential for such an uprising. A number of statements were made to the effect that Kazakhstan was too politically and socially stable, that the level of living was too high for such revolutions. In different shades, comments were made that Nazarbayev was too strong, that Akaev was known to be weak and it was his fault for running like he did. The Kazakh nation is too proud to shame their nation by revolting and threatening the stability and power of the state. Confident statements were made by Ministers, by the President, and his daughter that a colored revolution could not happen here. Some spurious comments have been made, especially by outsiders, that Astana and Almaty are such beautiful, wonderful cities with great supermarkets full of good and stand as proof of the greatness of life in Kazakhstan—ignoring the poorer parts of the country, not to mention the cities and the very real problems that do exist in Kazakhstan. An article appeared in the Almaty Herald praising the strength of Nazarbayev and comparing him to other strong leaders, essentially claiming that it was right for a leader to destroy his enemies in any way possible. One would hope for a leader who also did some leading upon occasion of course. Protests and assaults were made, apparently without any official involvement, against Tuyakbai and his campaign leaders, by people carrying signs to the effect that he was destroying his nation by promoting foment.

Nonetheless, note was made that the threat existed of such a revolution—that the opposition was frustrated (whether because of the Administration’s injustices or because of their own weakness), that people can become infected, that the corrupted West was planting illegitimate roots in Kazakhstan, that certain elements could use revolution and anarchy to empower themselves. Note was made that the police have ordered crowd control weapons, and also machine guns, and were training in putting down rallies. The Kyrgyzstan revolution and its aftermath were shown in the press in terms of anarchy and rumors were spread that Russians were running away, cars were being impounded by the police on the road from Almaty to Bishkek. And to be fair, things aren’t pretty at the moment, through evidence exists that people still live there and go about their business.

Now we have some ominous announcements that Radical Kazakh opposition [are] planning armed provocations according to the police. Some opposition groups are allegedly training and arming revolutionaries and trying to bribe the police to join them. The Interior Minister claimed that tensions have been mounting as the campaign goes on. Nonetheless the head of the National Security Commission ensures us that

Kazakh citizens are against any revolutions

.
Dariga Nazarbayeva herself, according to Kazakhstan Today, does not rule out the possibility of protests. She is of course the daughter of the President and the head of Asar, a pro-Presidential party, as well as a media mogul.

“They are already selecting those who will bring people to the square. In this case I feel sorry for the mislead people. Respectable and law and peaceful citizens will suffer,” she noted. According to D. Nazarbayeva, protest numerical strength may reach 10 per cent off the whole Kazakhstan population. “Other people will come as well expecting their participation in the actions be paid,” she added.

Translation by Nataliya Shirinskikh, and provided by the IFES mailing list: Kaz-Elections@yahoogroups.com
While she may be right, one wonders what her sources of information are.

The Washington Post reports that unknown assailants had broken into [Otan’s regional] office, assaulting a guard in the process and stealing strategic documents.

Meanwhile, candidate and head of the opposition bloc, Toward a New Kazakhstan, Tuyakbai, said no actions [are] planned for Election Day This is consistent with statements made by him and other ‘mainstream’ opposition leaders in the past. We do find on IAC’s website, this is consistent with statements made by him and other ‘mainstream’ opposition leaders in the past. We do find on IAC’s website, 2 million tenge has been offered by the Almaty police for information leading to the whereabouts of Yelena Nikitina’s daughter and Tuyakbai has offered another million. And Zhanibek Kozhyk, a regional Mashlikhat member in Mangiastau, working with Tuyakbai’s campaign, was allegedly assaulted.

Kozhyk was driving home when a dark car without license plates forced him off the road. Four athletic-looking young men climbed from the car. Threatening Kozhyk with a firearm, they got him out of the car and assailed the activist. Several shots in the air were fired. The men got into Kozhyk’s car and ordered Zhetibai Sansybayev to drive. There is no information on driver Sansybayev’s whereabouts.

I assume Sansybaev is Kozhyk’s driver.

However, the officials say it was not political and Kazakhstan Today reports

Material evidences were withdrawn: receipts from several people on receiving money (foreign currency) from him. Origin of the money will be investigated into.

translation by Valery Mertsalov, Tatyana Kazantseva, and provided by the IFES mailing list

At the same time, allegations are also flying about police investigations into Nurkadilov’s death. That his house was wiretapped, that his family is being interrogated without their lawyers present, that they are being forced to confess it was a suicide. Apparently his widow has written an appeal to the President, but I haven’t been able to find the text. Or verfication of any of this.