KZBlog

I have written a bit about this earlier. In a post from February, Which Candidate is Good for Central Asia?, I noted that Obama is widely viewed as having a more international outlook and being more willing to negotiate with foreign countries, even those that may have questionable human rights policies. However commentors agreed that policy toward Central Asia would not be particularly different under Obama or McCain, nor would it change much from previous policy. US Ambassador Richard Hoagland yesterday also affirmed that relations between the US and Kazakhstan would not change drastically.

However Obama was by far the favorite choice of Kazakhstan. Yesterday at the US Embassy there was an Election 2008 breakfast where Americans and Kazakhs could watch the election results come in and ultimately got to see the victory of Obama. Judging from anecdotal evidence there was far more enthusiasm for Obama than McCain and when Obama’s victory was projected there were shouts of joy from Americans and Kazakhstani alike. An election taken in American Corners, learning centers sponsored by the Embassy throughout Kazakhstan, showed a clear preference for Obama. People I have talked to cited his chuldhood in Indonesia, his understanding of Islam and his multicultural background as reasons to believe Obama would be an agent for peace and understanding in the world, not war.

Beyond the image of a negotiator, however, there is not a lot of evidence that Kazakhstan is an important country for Obama. Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran and North Korea loom higher in US consciousness, of course. Obama has said he will support closer relations between the US and ASEAN [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations]. While no Central Asian nations are members of ASEAN, that initiative might translate into more support for regional organizations such as the SCO and the CIS. Or it might not.

As has been noted in this blog before Vice President-Elect Joe Biden has some experience in the CIS and is widely regarded as one of the top experts on foreign policy in Washington. Concretely he has promoted democracy and freedom in Kazakhstan and Russia. But that has been the stand of the US government for a while.

As Sean Roberts notes, the biggest change in Kazakhstan-US relations might be the change in how Kazakhstan views the US. For a long time, the US has been viewed poorly for the war in Iraq, intolerance for Muslims, an aggressive policy toward Russia and China. The perceived hypocrisy of the US pushing for democratic reforms and freedoms in Central Asia and the rest of the world in the wake of the 2000 and 2004 elections has not done much for US prestige in the region. Furthermore there are widespread views that Americans are racist, or that African Americans are uneducated gangsters straight out of rap videos.

The overwhelming victory of Obama, McCain’s immediate concession, and the relatively small number of voter complaints will hopefully restore world faith in American democracy. The first African-American president winning with such a landslide should put to rest accusations that the US is racist and Obama’s prestige as a Harvard graduate and respected Senator should improve the image of African Americans in the world. Most importantly, the hope that Obama will be a force for peace in the world should do a lot to repair America’s image as a war monger and an uncompromising, aggressive would-be emperor of the world.

But that image as a peacemaker, not to mention his youth and inexperience, might work against President Obama. Joe Biden famously said on the campaign trail:

It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We’re about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.

Many felt that this statement, while not useful for the campaign, held truth to it and a number of observers felt that that test might come from Russia, as the USSR tested JFK. In fact, messages are already being sent. Will Russia respect this young newcomer or will they see a weak opponent that they can walk all over? Will leaders in the former Soviet Union be able to sit at the table with Obama and view him as a true equal? Is it true that only fear of an aggressive US can truly keep certain foreign nations from realizing their own dreams of empire?

In general, we have little concrete to go on to picture an Obama policy on Kazakhstan. Only time will ultimately tell, but likely the changes will not be radical.

What do you, dear reader, think? What changes can we look forward to? Will Russia “test the mettle” of Obama? Will there be a bigger push for democratic reforms under President Obama?