KZBlog

The biggest news of the past months has broken: Barack Obama, the US Democratic Party Presidential candidate, has picked Joe Biden as his vice-president. As many pundits have been pointing out for months, one of Obama’s weak points is his lack of foreign policy credentials. Biden, a Democrat from the state of Delaware, is a long-serving Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, meaning he has excellent foreign policy experience.

He made headlines for us Kazakhstanaphiles when he wrote a stern letter to President Nazarbayev in early 2007, threatening to work against Kazakhstan’s attempt to get the chairmanship of the OSCE if the nation did not do more to promote democracy. At the time Senator Biden was running for the Democratic nomination for President. An excerpt from Registan:

I am disappointed, however, that Kazakhstan is not moving more quickly towards becoming a transparent democracy that enjoys full freedom of the press, recognized political parties and the other vital institutions that 15 million Kazakh citizens deserve.

Moreover, I am troubled by recent reports indicating that officials within your government have been interfering with the efforts of political parties to organize, such as in the case of the Atameken party.

Given the tensions and turmoil in the broader Middle East, an open and progressive minded Kazakhstan has the potential to be a bridge between east and west and to play an influential role in diminishing current and potential hostilities. But it can only do so if those who value freedom, democracy and tolerance perceive Kazakhstan as part of the solution, not part of the problem.

Whether or not you agree with Senator Biden, the fact that he was aware of issues like the allegations of government interference in registering the Atameken party indicates that he is on the ball in Central Asian issues. If Obama wins, that hopefully translates into a more realistic and informed policy on this region.

Of course, that links him to businessman Yerzhan Dosmukhamedov, who was trying to found Atameken and lobbying support in DC to pressure the Kazakhstan government. Dosmukhamedov is also the man who agreed to help The Times of London secretly record lobbyist Stephen Payne. In this country, it is widely believed (to the extent that it is discussed) that he agreed in order to get revenge on the Kazakhstan government. Biden’s connections to the self-exiled opposition leader may not lend him credibility in the eyes of Kazakhstan.

Furthermore, as the Daily Kos points out, Biden is mentioned by Payne, apparently as someone whose support could be bought (The scenario was that Payne believed Dosmukhamedov was representing ousted Kyrgyz President Akayev and seeking support from Washington):

…most importantly we send positive statements made back from the administration about ‘This guy wasn’t such a bad guy’, ‘Many people have done worse’, those kind of statements from a couple of people in the administration, maybe Senator Biden, maybe on the Democrat side, a few statements like that…

Of course, Payne may have been doing some advertising. Biden, as head of the Foreign Relations Committee, is an ideal source of a positive quote. And Payne was certainly not saying he could get Biden’s support by buying him off. Still, it doesn’t bode well.

Furthermore, not long ago he reported to the Senate on US energy policy in Central Asia, favoring trying to block Russia’s deals to get a hold of Kazakh and Turkmen oil and gas. Generally he is in favor of diplomacy and keeping open relations rather than more extreme measures.

Moving out of the Central Asian region, Biden recently went to Georgia and made a strong statement of condemnation of Russia.

But Russia’s actions in Georgia will have consequences. Russia’s failure to keep its word and withdraw troops from Georgia risks the country’s standing as part of the international community. That is not the future the United States or Europe want — but it is the future Russia may get…

Biden referred specifically to consequences such as halting any legislative attempts to further US-Russian partnership, collaboration in nuclear energy production, and keeping in force the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, which prevents Russia from joining the WTO.

He also cast into doubt Russia’s justifications for invading.

I left the country convinced that Russia’s invasion of Georgia may be the one of the most significant event to occur in Europe since the end of communism. The claims of Georgian atrocities that provided the pretext for Russia’s invasion are rapidly being disproved by international observers, and the continuing presence of Russian forces in the country has severe implications for the broader region. The war that began in Georgia is no longer about that country alone. It has become a question of whether and how the West will stand up for the rights of free people throughout the region”

He also proposed $1 billion in emergency humanitarian aid for Georgia.

While both McCain and Obama made statements about Georgia, McCain’s was much stronger and clearer according to most observers. Obama’s, while well reasoned and eloquently written (of course), did not spell out a clear plan of action. Biden’s statement which is certainly unambigious shows that he may well be able to balance Obama’s inexperience. Of course, Medvedev may not let him into the Kremlin if he vists as Vice President.

So in Central Asia, Biden may well be a well-informed but unwelcome guest.