KZBlog

There was an interesting development in an otherwise typical first meeting of the new government.

The new Prime Minister set his agenda which includes improving civil service and the administration of the government, as well as various economic issues, and continuing key projects under Akhmetov, which was all to be expected.

A photo was taken of the new government, as it usually is.

What was odd was that the head of NurOtan was present and that apparently the government program will go through NurOtan before it goes to Parliament:

Karim Masimov, Prime Minister of RK:
– Mister Zhumagulov is present and we have to arrange a discussion for this programme at a session of the Otan party, before we pass the report to Parliament. I turn to you and ask you to give us an opportunity for discussion and receiving recommendations from the party.
from the Khabar article

What does this mean? Obviously it’s one more sign that NurOtan is growing in strength. They advised on the new PM for the first time, and now they are sitting in on government meetings (not unheard of, but a first government meeting to set the program for the whole country?). And they will approve (or at least comment on) the government program.

Was NurOtan there to keep an eye on Massimov, or to assert their new authority? Likely, a little of both. I float the theory that the succession has already been determined. As is widely noted, the President holds the real power in Kazakhstan and it is a constant question what will happen in 2012 when his term ends, or should (god forbid) he be incapacitated in some way. While the situation is by no means at the level of Turkmenistan, a lot of power and responsibility (formal and informal) rest on one pair of shoulders. It would appear that NurOtan will be the vehicle for peaceful and smooth transfer of power. I wonder if they changed the name from Otan to NurOtan, to honor the President or to win the loyalty of people who admire the President. In 2011, at voting time people who do not think about politics, and don’t know the candidates at all, will naturally incline toward NurOtan, now emphatically the party of the man who is widely believed to be responsible for all good things in Kazakhstan.

It may not be a question of which team is taking over in Kazakhstan. It may be a question of which party.